#490 – State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI

Feb 1, 2026 0

About this episode

Nathan Lambert and Sebastian Raschka are machine learning researchers, engineers, and educators. Nathan is the post-training lead at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of The RLHF Book. Sebastian Raschka is the author of Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch) and Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch). Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sc">https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sc</a> See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. Transcript: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript">https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript</a> CONTACT LEX: Feedback – give feedback to Lex: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/survey">https://lexfridman.com/survey</a> AMA – submit questions, videos or call-in: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/ama">https://lexfridman.com/ama</a> Hiring – join our team: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/hiring">https://lexfridman.com/hiring</a> Other – other ways to get in touch: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/contact">https://lexfridman.com/contact</a> SPONSORS: To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: Box: Intelligent content management platform. Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/box-ep490-sc">https://box.com/ai</a> Quo: Phone system (calls, texts, contacts) for businesses. Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/quo-ep490-sc">https://quo.com/lex</a> UPLIFT Desk: Standing desks and office ergonomics. Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/uplift_desk-ep490-sc">https://upliftdesk.com/lex</a> Fin: AI agent for customer service. Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/fin-ep490-sc">https://fin.ai/lex</a> Shopify: Sell stuff online. Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep490-sc">https://shopify.com/lex</a> CodeRabbit: AI-powered code reviews. Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/coderabbit-ep490-sc">https://coderabbit.ai/lex</a> LMNT: Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix. Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/lmnt-ep490-sc">https://drinkLMNT.com/lex</a> Perplexity: AI-powered answer engine. Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/perplexity-ep490-sc">https://perplexity.ai/</a> OUTLINE: (00:00) – Introduction (01:39) – Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections (16:29) – China vs US: Who wins the AI race? (25:11) – ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning? (36:11) – Best AI for coding (43:02) – Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs (54:41) – Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019 (1:02:38) – AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding? (1:18:45) – How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training (1:51:51) – Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs (2:12:43) – Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research (2:35:36) – Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks) (2:39:22) – Silicon Valley bubble (2:43:19) – Text diffusion models and other new research directions (2:49:01) – Tool use (2:53:17) – Continual learning (2:58:39) – Long context (3:04:54) – Robotics (3:14:04) – Timeline to AGI (3:21:20) – Will AI replace programmers? (3:39:51) – Is the dream of AGI dying? (3:46:40) – How AI will make money? (3:51:02) – Big acquisitions in 2026 (3:55:34) – Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta (4:08:08) – Manhattan Project for AI (4:14:42) – Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters (4:22:48) – Future of human civilization

Listen to this episode in English to learn English

Podcast episodes are one of the highest-density ways to absorb English at native pace. #490 – State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI from Lex Fridman Podcast gives you natural dialogue, unscripted speech, and vocabulary that actually appears in real conversations.

In the Clue app, every word in the transcript is tappable. Tap an unknown word, see the translation in your language instantly, and keep listening without breaking flow.

Episodes to Learn English

More podcasts in English