Can the US Afford an Energy Trade Fight?

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Unlike autos or agriculture, North America’s energy trade does not function as a single, integrated three-country system. Instead, it operates through two powerful bilateral relationships: Canadian oil flowing south into US refineries and American natural gas powering Mexico’s economy. Howard Energy Partners CEO Mike Howard says roughly 70% of Mexico’s energy comes from the United States, while former Canada Energy Regulator CEO Gitane De Silva notes that about 60% of US oil imports originate in Canada. As USMCA negotiations approach, energy executives, regulators, and policy experts largely agree on one thing: the current arrangement works remarkably well, and the best outcome may be to leave it largely untouched.
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