The REAL Reason The Iran War Leads To World War 3

So let me explain to you why ground troops has to be sent. >> Okay. >> All right. Okay.

So in phase one of this war which started February 28th which lasted for about 6 weeks the intention was to decapitate the regime. And you do that by striking tan and you do that by striking the military bases in installations throughout Iran.

It's it's what the Americans call sharp and all. And the point is to force the Iranians to call uncle. But that's not what happened. >> To give up >> to give up basically because what the

Iranians did was they responded by attacking US bases throughout the GCC. They closed off a straight of Humus and they rallied their people. Okay.

So rather than surrender, the Iranians basically double down. Okay, that's phase two of the war. Now we've gone to phase three of the war where Trump has basically decided that decapation does not work. And so what Trump's going to do is he's going

to impose a naval blockade on Iran's naval blockade. Right? And so the question then is if Trump understands that decapitation does not work then using game theory. >> What's game theory?

>> Game theory is the belief that all the world is governed by rules and incentives. And once you understand the rules and incentives, you can predict how people behave because people will always behave according to their best interest.

So in geopolitics, the nation states are individual players and each nation state is trying to use its resources and um its advantages in order to pressure other nation states to obey it. Okay, so Trump recognizes that the Iranians have closed off

the circle of moves, but not only that, but the Iranians have also used the circle of moves to finance the war, meaning that now they're forcing ships to pay a toll of $2 million in order to cross it. And so this is a huge advantage for the Iranians.

And so Trump has said, "No, I'm going to blockade your blockade, negating Iran's advantage over the certical moves." So we think about it again using game theory. I want to discuss what the Americans will do in order to force uh the Iranians to capitulate.

Okay. So I would say there's a three point strategy. The first strategy is economic strangulation. you basically destroy the state's capacity to finance the war. And there are two ways that Iran is financing the

war so far. The first is using oil exports, right? 90% of Iran's oil goes to China and um this is Car Island. Okay, this this little spot here is Car Island.

And this is where Iran will export 90% of its oil overseas. That's the first mechanism. Second mechanis mechanism is a who moves where the RA now can collect tolls right.

So what you have to do is you have to eliminate both of these finance mechanisms. You can close off both with the name of locket. Okay. So that's strategy one.

strategy two is you need to create as much chaos within Iran as possible. You want to turn this fortress into a prison. And the way you do that is by stirring up ethnic tensions in the country.

So if you look at a map, ethnic map of Iran, what you'll discover is that the Persian people are primarily in this area in the middle of the country. But if you go to the borderlands, okay, the border areas, it's primarily ethnic minorities.