#459 – DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

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<p>Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research &#38; analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects.<br /> Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep459-sc">https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep459-sc</a><br /> See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.</p> <p><b>Transcript:</b><br /> <a href="https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript">https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript</a></p> <p><b>CONTACT LEX:</b><br /> <b>Feedback</b> &#8211; give feedback to Lex: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/survey">https://lexfridman.com/survey</a><br /> <b>AMA</b> &#8211; submit questions, videos or call-in: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/ama">https://lexfridman.com/ama</a><br /> <b>Hiring</b> &#8211; join our team: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/hiring">https://lexfridman.com/hiring</a><br /> <b>Other</b> &#8211; other ways to get in touch: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/contact">https://lexfridman.com/contact</a></p> <p><b>EPISODE LINKS:</b><br /> Dylan&#8217;s X: <a href="https://x.com/dylan522p">https://x.com/dylan522p</a><br /> SemiAnalysis: <a href="https://semianalysis.com/">https://semianalysis.com/</a><br /> Nathan&#8217;s X: <a href="https://x.com/natolambert">https://x.com/natolambert</a><br /> Nathan&#8217;s Blog: <a href="https://www.interconnects.ai/">https://www.interconnects.ai/</a><br /> Nathan&#8217;s Podcast: <a href="https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast">https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast</a><br /> Nathan&#8217;s Website: <a href="https://www.natolambert.com/">https://www.natolambert.com/</a><br /> Nathan&#8217;s YouTube: <a href="https://youtube.com/@natolambert">https://youtube.com/@natolambert</a><br /> Nathan&#8217;s Book: <a href="https://rlhfbook.com/">https://rlhfbook.com/</a></p> <p><b>SPONSORS:</b><br /> To support this podcast, check out our sponsors &#38; get discounts:<br /> <b>Invideo AI:</b> AI video generator.<br /> Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/invideoai-ep459-sc">https://invideo.io/i/lexpod</a><br /> <b>GitHub:</b> Developer platform and AI code editor.<br /> Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/github-ep459-sc">https://gh.io/copilot</a><br /> <b>Shopify:</b> Sell stuff online.<br /> Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep459-sc">https://shopify.com/lex</a><br /> <b>NetSuite:</b> Business management software.<br /> Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/netsuite-ep459-sc">http://netsuite.com/lex</a><br /> <b>AG1:</b> All-in-one daily nutrition drinks.<br /> Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/ag1-ep459-sc">https://drinkag1.com/lex</a></p> <p><b>OUTLINE:</b><br /> (00:00) &#8211; Introduction<br /> (13:28) &#8211; DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3<br /> (35:02) &#8211; Low cost of training<br /> (1:01:19) &#8211; DeepSeek compute cluster<br /> (1:08:52) &#8211; Export controls on GPUs to China<br /> (1:19:10) &#8211; AGI timeline<br /> (1:28:35) &#8211; China&#8217;s manufacturing capacity<br /> (1:36:30) &#8211; Cold war with China<br /> (1:41:00) &#8211; TSMC and Taiwan<br /> (2:04:38) &#8211; Best GPUs for AI<br /> (2:19:30) &#8211; Why DeepSeek is so cheap<br /> (2:32:49) &#8211; Espionage<br /> (2:41:52) &#8211; Censorship<br /> (2:54:46) &#8211; Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL<br /> (3:05:17) &#8211; OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1<br /> (3:24:25) &#8211; NVIDIA<br /> (3:28:53) &#8211; GPU smuggling<br /> (3:35:30) &#8211; DeepSeek training on OpenAI data<br /> (3:45:59) &#8211; AI megaclusters<br /> (4:21:21) &#8211; Who wins the race to AGI?<br /> (4:31:34) &#8211; AI agents<br /> (4:40:16) &#8211; Programming and AI<br /> (4:47:43) &#8211; Open source<br /> (4:56:55) &#8211; Stargate<br /> (5:04:24) &#8211; Future of AI</p>