This Paradox Splits Smart People 50/50

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Two boxes, one choice, and $1,000,000. Sponsored by Brilliant - To learn for free on Brilliant for a full 30 days, go to https://brilliant.org/veritasium. Our viewers also get 20% off an annual Premium subscription, which gives you unlimited daily access to everything on Brilliant. In 2025, we launched the Elements of Truth game on Kickstarter and were thrilled by the response. We’re now in the final stages of production, with Kickstarter rewards shipping soon. If you missed the campaign, you can now pre-order the retail edition through our new website here -https://ve42.co/NewcombDesc If you’re looking for a molecular modelling kit, try Snatoms, a kit I invented where the atoms snap together magnetically - https://ve42.co/SnatomsV Sign up for the Veritasium newsletter for weekly science updates - https://ve42.co/Newsletter ▀▀▀ A huge thank you to Dr. Arif Ahmed, Dr. Adam Elga, Dr. Kenny Easwaran, Dr. Peter Slezak, Dr. David Wolpert, Dr. Scott Aaronson & Dr. Michael Huemer for their invaluable expertise and contributions to this video on Newcomb’s Paradox. The causal expected utility calculation was based on a post by Professor Huemer here - https://ve42.co/Huemer ▀▀▀ 0:00 What is Newcomb’s Paradox? 3:24 Pick 1 Box! 5:24 Pick Both! 6:38 What is decision theory? 11:27 What does Newcomb’s Paradox say about free will? 13:25 What does it mean to be rational? 16:49 Mutually Assured Destruction 20:02 Precommitment Is The Ultimate Strategy ▀▀▀ References can be found here - https://ve42.co/NewcombRefs ▀▀▀ Special thanks to our Patreon supporters: Albert Wenger, Sam Lutfi, Michael Krugman, Sinan Taifour, Marinus Kuivenhoven, Lee Redden, Richard Sundvall, Ubiquity Ventures, David Johnston, Juan Benet, Paul Peijzel, Meekay, Evgeny Skvortsov, Blake Byers, Dave Kircher, Gnare, Anton Ragin, KeyWestr, meg noah, Tj Steyn, Orlando Bassotto, Adam Foreman, Balkrishna Heroor, Jesse Brandsoy, Garrett Mueller, Kyi, Ibby Hadeed, Bertrand Serlet, wolfee, David Tseng, Bruce, Alexander Tamas, Alex Porter, Jon Jamison, Charles Ian Norman Venn, armedtoe, Jeromy Johnson, Hayden Christensen, Robson, EJ Alexandra, Daniel Martins, Shalva Bukia, Moebiusol - Cristian, Martin Paull, Data Don, Vahe Andonians, Mark Heising, Hong Thai Le, Parsee Health, Kelcey Steele ▀▀▀ Writers: Sulli Yost & Casper Mebius Producer & Director: Sulli Yost Editor: Jack Saxon Additional Editing: Peter Nelson Camera Operators: Lukas Guderjahn, Danijela Čavlović, Casper Mebius, Gregor Čavlović & Derek Muller Presenters: Casper Mebius, Gregor Čavlović, Henry van Dyck & Derek Muller Animators: Emma Wright, Andrew Neet, Alex Drakoulis, Domonkos Józsa & Fabio Albertelli Assistant Editor: James Stuart Researcher: Darius Garewal & Gabe Strong Thumbnail Designers: Abdallah Rabah, Ren Hurley & Ben Powell Production Team: Jess Bishop-Laggett, Matthew Cavanagh, Anna Milkovich & Josh Pitt Executive Producers: Casper Mebius & Derek Muller Additional video/photos supplied by Getty Images & Storyblocks Music from Epidemic Sound